Skill.md

context-status

Show current session status and context health for the sewage project. Use to check context usage, active work state, and what will survive compaction.

context-status/

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SKILL.md

---
name: context-status
description: |
  Show current session status and context health for the sewage project.
  Use to check context usage, active work state, and what will survive compaction.
allowed-tools: ["Bash", "Read", "Glob"]
---

# Context Status

Show current session status including context usage estimate and project state.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Check Session State

```bash
# Recent git activity
git log --oneline -5

# Working tree status
git status --short

# Recent output files
ls -lt output/log/ 2>/dev/null | head -5
```

### Step 2: Check Project Progress

```bash
# Count analysis scripts
find scripts/R/09_analysis/ -name "*.R" | wc -l

# Count output tables and figures
ls output/tables/*.tex 2>/dev/null | wc -l
ls output/figures/ 2>/dev/null | wc -l

# Check manuscript sections
ls docs/overleaf/*.tex 2>/dev/null
```

### Step 3: Report Status

Format output:

```
Session Status
---
Recent commits: [last 3]
Uncommitted changes: [count]
Recent reports: [last 3 in output/log/]

Project Progress
---
Pipeline scripts: N
Analysis scripts: N
Output tables: N
Output figures: N
Manuscript sections: N .tex files

Memory Files
---
[List files in .claude/projects/.../memory/]
```

## Notes

- Context usage is estimated from conversation length
- All important state is saved to disk (memory files, output/log/)
- Use `/commit` to save work before context compaction

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---
name: auto-empirical-research-skills
description: Route empirical-research requests through the Auto-Empirical Research Skills catalog when this whole repository is installed as one skill in Codex, CodeBuddy, Claude Code, or another IDE. Use to choose and load the right vendored AERS skill for causal inference, econometrics, replication, data acquisition, manuscript writing, peer review and referee responses, citation checking, de-AIGC editing, or full empirical-paper workflows, or an end-to-end run from raw data all the way to a finished Word (.docx) manuscript, without reading the entire repository at once.
---

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---
name: Full-empirical-analysis-skill
description: Classical end-to-end empirical analysis workflow in the traditional Python econometric stack — pandas + numpy + scipy + statsmodels + linearmodels + pyfixest + rdrobust + econml + causalml + matplotlib/seaborn. **Defaults to economics empirical-paper style** (AER / QJE / AEJ) — every run produces a publication-ready output set with a multi-column regression table (M1→M6 progressive controls/FE) as the centerpiece, plus Table 1 (descriptives), mechanism / heterogeneity / robustness tables, and event-study + coefficient + trend figures. Covers the full 8-step pipeline an applied economist or quantitative social scientist runs on every paper — (1) data cleaning, (2) variable construction & transformation, (3) descriptive statistics & Table 1, (4) statistical diagnostic tests, (5) baseline empirical modeling, (6) robustness battery, (7) further analysis (mechanism, heterogeneity, mediation, moderation), (8) publication-ready tables & figures. **Also covers two parallel domain modes that share the same 8-step scaffolding** — **Mode A — Epidemiology / public health** (target-trial emulation via `zepid` / hand-rolled `pandas`, IPTW + g-formula + TMLE doubly-robust triplet via `zepid` / `econml` / `lifelines`, Mendelian randomization via `pymr` / `mrtool` (or `rpy2` → `MendelianRandomization`/`TwoSampleMR`), KM / AFT / Cox survival via `lifelines`, E-value sensitivity, principal stratification — STROBE / TRIPOD reporting), and **Mode B — ML causal inference** (DML via `econml.dml` / `doubleml`, S/T/X/R/DR meta-learners via `econml.metalearners` / `causalml`, causal forest via `econml.grf` / `causalml`, Dragonnet / TARNet / CEVAE neural causal via `causalml`, BCF via `pymc-bart` / `bcf-py`, matrix completion, CATE distribution + policy tree via `econml.policy` / `policytree-py`, off-policy evaluation, conformal causal via `mapie`, fairness audit via `fairlearn`, DAG learning via `causal-learn` / `cdt` / LLM-assisted). Prescribes which library to reach for at each step, shows the canonical code, and links to deeper `references/` files for variant-specific patterns. Use when the user asks for a **complete empirical analysis** in Python, wants to replicate an applied-economics paper from scratch, needs a reproducible workflow that is NOT opinionated on any single vertical package (contrast with StatsPAI), wants explicit control over every estimator and diagnostic, or asks "how do I write a full empirical pipeline in Python?". Also triggers when the user names a specific classical step in isolation — "winsorize at 1/99%", "run Breusch-Pagan", "build a Table 1 balance table", "do a placebo test", "event study plot", "mediation analysis" — and wants it wired into the broader pipeline. Mode A triggers on "target trial emulation", "IPTW", "TMLE", "Mendelian randomization", "STROBE", "公共健康", "流行病学". Mode B triggers on "DML", "double machine learning", "causal forest", "meta-learner", "Dragonnet", "BCF", "policy tree", "conformal causal", "fairness audit", "因果机器学习".
---

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---
name: Full-empirical-analysis-skill-R
description: Classical end-to-end empirical analysis workflow in the modern tidyverse + econometrics R ecosystem — dplyr + tidyr + haven + fixest + sandwich + lmtest + clubSandwich + AER + ivreg + did + bacondecomp + HonestDiD + eventstudyr + rdrobust + rddensity + Synth + gsynth + synthdid + MatchIt + WeightIt + cobalt + ebal + grf + DoubleML + mediation + marginaleffects + modelsummary + kableExtra + gt + ggplot2 + ggpubr + cowplot + binsreg. **Defaults to economics empirical-paper style** (AER / QJE / AEJ) — every run produces a publication-ready output set with a multi-column regression table (M1→M6 progressive controls/FE) as the centerpiece, plus Table 1 (descriptives), mechanism / heterogeneity / robustness tables, and event-study + coefficient + trend figures. Covers the full 8-step R pipeline an applied economist runs on every paper — (1) data import & cleaning (read_dta/read_csv, naniar, janitor, validate-merges), (2) variable construction (mutate/across/winsorize/group_by + lag/lead with dplyr), (3) descriptive statistics & Table 1 (gtsummary, modelsummary::datasummary, tableone), (4) classical diagnostic tests (shapiro/jarque.bera.test/bptest/dwtest/bgtest/vif/adf.test/kpss.test/Hausman), (5) baseline modeling (fixest::feols, ivreg, did::att_gt, eventstudyr, sun_ab, did_imputation, synthdid, rdrobust, MatchIt, WeightIt, grf::causal_forest, DoubleML, mediation), (6) robustness battery (modelsummary stack, clubSandwich CRSE, fwildclusterboot, ri2, robomit Oster, bacondecomp, HonestDiD), (7) further analysis (interactions + marginaleffects, mediation::mediate, gsem via lavaan, dose-response splines, grf CATE), (8) publication-ready tables & figures (modelsummary, kableExtra, gt, stargazer, texreg, flextable to LaTeX/Word/HTML; ggplot2 + ggpubr + cowplot + binsreg + iplot for figures). **Also covers two parallel domain modes that share the same 8-step scaffolding** — **Mode A — Epidemiology / public health** (target-trial emulation, IPTW + g-formula + TMLE doubly-robust triplet via `WeightIt` / `gfoRmula` / `tmle` / `ltmle`, Mendelian randomization via `MendelianRandomization` / `TwoSampleMR` / `MRPRESSO`, KM / Cox / AFT / RMST survival via `survival` / `survminer` / `flexsurv`, E-value sensitivity via `EValue`, principal stratification — STROBE / TRIPOD reporting), and **Mode B — ML causal inference** (DML via `DoubleML`, S/T/X/R/DR meta-learners via `causalweight` / `grf`, causal forest via `grf::causal_forest`, BART/BCF via `bartCause` / `bcf`, matrix completion via `MCPanel`, CATE distribution + policy tree via `policytree`, off-policy evaluation, conformal causal via `conformalInference` / `cfcausal`, fairness audit via `fairmodels`, DAG learning via `pcalg` / `bnlearn` / LLM-assisted). Use when the user asks for a complete R empirical analysis, wants a tidyverse-style reproducible R script / Quarto workflow, prefers fixest over reghdfe, needs the R counterpart to StatsPAI / 00.1 / 00.2, or names a specific R step in isolation ("feols with cluster", "MatchIt nearest neighbor", "bacondecomp in R", "gtsummary table 1", "modelsummary to Word"). Mode A triggers on "target trial emulation R", "tmle ltmle", "MendelianRandomization", "TwoSampleMR", "MRPRESSO", "survival cox AFT", "STROBE R", "EValue R", "公共健康 R", "流行病学 R". Mode B triggers on "DoubleML R", "grf causal forest", "policytree", "bartCause bcf", "conformal causal R", "fairmodels", "pcalg NOTEARS", "因果机器学习 R".
---

Full-empirical-analysis-skill-R

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---
name: Full-empirical-analysis-skill-Stata
description: Classical end-to-end empirical analysis workflow in the traditional Stata ecosystem — native Stata + reghdfe + ivreg2 + csdid + did_imputation + eventstudyinteract + sdid + rdrobust + rddensity + synth + synth_runner + psmatch2 + teffects + ebalance + coefplot + esttab + asdoc + binscatter. **Defaults to economics empirical-paper style** (AER / QJE / AEJ) — every run produces a publication-ready output set with a multi-column regression table (M1→M6 progressive controls/FE) as the centerpiece, plus Table 1 (descriptives), mechanism / heterogeneity / robustness tables, and event-study + coefficient + trend figures. Covers the full 8-step Stata pipeline an applied economist runs on every paper — (1) data import & cleaning (use/import, destring, misstable, duplicates, merge assert), (2) variable construction (gen/egen/winsor2/xtile/xtset with L./F./D.), (3) descriptive statistics & Table 1 (tabstat/balancetable/asdoc), (4) classical diagnostic tests (sktest/swilk/hettest/imtest/xtserial/xttest3/vif/dfuller/kpss/hausman/estat overid), (5) baseline modeling (reg/xtreg/reghdfe/ivreg2/ivregress/csdid/did_imputation/eventstudyinteract/sdid/rdrobust/synth/psmatch2/teffects/heckman/qreg/ppmlhdfe), (6) robustness battery (bacondecomp/honestdid/rwolf/ritest/wildbootstrap/oster), (7) further analysis (subgroup/triple-diff/interactions/medsem/marginsplot/binscatter by group), (8) publication-ready tables & figures (esttab/outreg2/estout/coefplot/marginsplot/rdplot/twoway combined). **Also covers two parallel domain modes that share the same 8-step scaffolding** — **Mode A — Epidemiology / public health** (target-trial emulation, IPTW + g-formula + TMLE doubly-robust triplet via `teffects ipw` / `teffects ipwra` / `teffects aipw` / `eltmle`, Mendelian randomization via `mrrobust` (IVW / Egger / weighted median) and `mregger` / `mrpresso`, KM / Cox / AFT / RMST survival via `sts` / `stcox` / `streg` / `strmst2`, E-value sensitivity via `evalue` (Linden-Mathur), principal stratification — STROBE / TRIPOD reporting), and **Mode B — ML causal inference** (DML via `ddml` / `pdslasso`, S/T/X/R/DR meta-learners via `crforest` and `ddml interactive`, causal forest via `crforest` / `cforest`, BART/BCF via `bart` / `bartCause`-style externals, CATE distribution + policy tree via `crforest`, off-policy evaluation, conformal causal externals, fairness audit, DAG learning via `pcalg` / external Python callouts). Use when the user asks for a complete Stata empirical analysis, wants a reproducible .do-file pipeline, needs a Stata counterpart to the Python StatsPAI / Full-empirical-analysis-skill, or names a specific Stata step in isolation ("run reghdfe with two-way clustering", "csdid event study", "winsor2 at 1%", "esttab to LaTeX", "coefplot with CI", "ivreg2 weak-IV test", "synth_runner placebos", "teffects psmatch balance check"). Mode A triggers on "target trial emulation Stata", "teffects ipw aipw", "eltmle", "mrrobust", "mregger weighted median", "stcox AFT survival", "strmst2", "evalue Stata", "STROBE Stata", "公共健康 Stata", "流行病学 Stata". Mode B triggers on "ddml Stata", "pdslasso", "crforest causal forest Stata", "policy tree Stata", "因果机器学习 Stata".
---